Three new releases storm Maharashtra Day weekend. One of them might rewrite Marathi cinema.
Raja Shivaji eyes a record opening. Patriot heads for the biggest Mollywood pre-sales of 2026. Bhooth Bangla enters Week 3 stable. And Dhurandhar 2 — per Pinkvilla — has now eclipsed Baahubali 2's original-run record.
Three forecasts on the table. One blew past expectations, one matched, and one collapsed harder than predicted. The biggest surprise: Bhooth Bangla in W3 outperformed every new Hindi release. The biggest validation: Dhurandhar 2 broke Baahubali 2's lifetime record on schedule.
| Film | Forecast D1 | Actual D1 | 3-Day Wknd | WW (D3) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raja Shivaji | ₹13.0 Cr | ₹11.35 Cr | ₹33.90 Cr | ₹40.34 Cr | ▲ EXCEEDED |
| Patriot | ₹15.0 Cr | ₹10.00 Cr | ₹21.65 Cr | ₹63.61 Cr | ▼ MIXED |
| Ek Din | ₹1.4 Cr | ₹0.85 Cr | ₹2.70 Cr | ₹3.65 Cr | ▼ UNDER |
| Bhooth Bangla (W3) | ₹4.0 Cr | ₹4.50 Cr | ₹14.05 Cr | ₹235.85 Cr | ▲ EXCEEDED |
| Dhurandhar 2 (W7) | ₹1.1 Cr | ₹1.20 Cr | ₹6.70 Cr | ₹1,801 Cr | ● ON FORECAST |
Original Article · Apr 30, 2026 · Friday Forecast
Three films open across India tomorrow on Maharashtra Day, and the one that's about to break records is the one most outside Bollywood is barely watching. Raja Shivaji — Riteish Deshmukh's Marathi historical epic with a Salman Khan cameo — has crossed 65,000 national chain pre-sales tickets and is heading toward the biggest opening day in Marathi cinema history. Patriot, the Mammootty–Mohanlal reunion, has just smashed past ₹20 crore in worldwide pre-sales, signalling a TERRIFIC Mollywood start. And Ek Din, Sai Pallavi's Hindi debut backed by Aamir Khan Productions, is opening quiet — pre-sales reportedly "in lakhs only."
While the new films take their swings, the holdovers tell their own story. Bhooth Bangla just crossed ₹200 crore worldwide on Day 14, locking the HIT verdict. Dhurandhar 2 — and this is the headline most trade press is missing — has, per Pinkvilla, surpassed Baahubali 2's original-run worldwide gross to become the biggest Indian film of all time on a like-for-like comparison. Vaazha 2, sitting at ₹125 crore India nett after a fairy-tale ₹10 crore-budget Mollywood run, finally faces its first real competition with Patriot eating Kerala screens.
Here's how the May 1–3 weekend stacks up.
Part One · The New Releases
Raja Shivaji
The film Marathi cinema has waited a decade for. Riteish Deshmukh both directs and stars as Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, with Sanjay Dutt, Abhishek Bachchan, Vidya Balan, Genelia Deshmukh, Bhagyashree, Fardeen Khan and Mahesh Manjrekar in support — plus a Salman Khan cameo as Jeeva Mahala that may swing the needle. Pre-sales of 65,000 national chain tickets (PVR Inox + Cinepolis combined) tell you the audience is ready. ₹100 Cr budget · ₹150 Cr already pre-sold to digital.
Why it might explode: Maharashtra Day public holiday, a story personal to every Marathi household, ₹3 Cr Marathi advance gross with blocked seats already crossed, Pune cinemas adding 7 AM shows due to demand. Pinkvilla's bullish final forecast: ₹10 Cr Marathi + ₹3 Cr Hindi = ₹13 Cr nett D1. If the Salman cameo + walk-ins land, this becomes the biggest Marathi opening ever (current record: Sairat ₹4.2 Cr / Timepass 2 ₹3.6 Cr).
Patriot
The Mammootty–Mohanlal reunion the Malayalam industry has been quietly building toward all year. Two living legends sharing the screen for the first time in years, with Fahadh Faasil and Kunchacko Boban completing what trade is calling the strongest Mollywood ensemble of the decade.
Why it's picking up momentum big time: Worldwide pre-sales just crossed ₹20 Cr per Pinkvilla — already in the top 10 Malayalam BMS pre-sales of all time. Kerala alone has crossed ₹4 Cr advance, Gulf at ₹5 Cr+, total WW pre-sales ₹13.5 Cr at last count. Trade is projecting ₹25 Cr WW D1. If it holds, Patriot could challenge Lokah Chapter 1's ₹304 Cr Malayalam WW lifetime record by mid-May.
Ek Din
Sai Pallavi's Hindi debut and Junaid Khan's theatrical follow-up to Loveyapa, in a Hindi remake of the 2016 Thai romantic drama "One Day." Aamir Khan Productions' niche bet on a tender, character-driven story in a market currently rewarding scale.
The honest read: Pre-release buzz never built. Advance sales reportedly "in lakhs only" per Republic World. Sacnilk forecasts D1 in the ₹1–2 Cr nett range. The film's box office journey will depend almost entirely on word-of-mouth from opening shows. Aamir Khan Productions has historically protected its underperformers with strong marketing post-release — that playbook may be needed here.
Part Two · The Holdovers
Bhooth Bangla holds · Vaazha 2 fights for screens · Dhurandhar 2 keeps closing in
Bhooth Bangla enters Week 3 with stable collections and a major milestone in its pocket — the film crossed ₹200 crore worldwide on Day 14 (Apr 30), becoming Akshay Kumar's 12th film past that mark and the third Bollywood film of 2026 to do so after Dhurandhar 2 and Border 2. India nett stands at ₹128 Cr per Sacnilk. With Maharashtra Day giving a holiday tailwind on Friday but Raja Shivaji eating screens, expect a stable W3 in the ₹25–30 Cr range. Lifetime trajectory: ₹145–155 Cr nett India, comfortable HIT.
Vaazha 2 — the ₹10 Cr-budget Malayalam film that became an all-time blockbuster at ₹125 Cr nett India / ₹230 Cr WW — finally faces its first serious competition. Patriot is going to disrupt Kerala screens severely; Koimoi confirms Vaazha 2's show count "will significantly drop" tomorrow. Friday could see it fall to ₹0.6–0.9 Cr from ₹1.15 Cr on Wednesday. The film will likely wrap as the third highest-grossing Malayalam film in India of all time, behind only Lokah Chapter 1 and Manjummel Boys.
Michael, Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic, enters Week 2 having already crossed $237M (~₹2,250 Cr) worldwide — surpassing Dhurandhar 2's WW gross. India is a smaller story (₹23.45 Cr in 6 days) but the Maharashtra Day boost should land it around ₹3.5 Cr Friday before The Devil Wears Prada 2 arrives next week.
| Film | This Week | India Cume | WW Gross | Friday D1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhooth Bangla (W3) | ₹40.00 Cr | ₹128.05 Cr | ₹204.28 Cr | ₹4.0 Cr |
| Michael (W2) | ₹23.45 Cr | ₹23.45 Cr | ₹2,250 Cr | ₹3.5 Cr |
| Vaazha 2 (W5) | ₹12.70 Cr | ₹125.40 Cr | ₹230.19 Cr | ₹0.7 Cr |
| Dhurandhar 2 (W7) | ₹11.30 Cr | ₹1,134.79 Cr | ₹1,783 Cr | ₹1.1 Cr |
| Lee Cronin's Mummy (W3) | ₹9.50 Cr | ₹26.00 Cr | ₹510 Cr | ₹0.6 Cr |
| Project Hail Mary (W6) | ₹1.00 Cr | ₹70.00 Cr | ₹4,925 Cr | ₹0.1 Cr |
Part Three · The Headline Most Trades Are Missing
Dhurandhar 2 has, by one measure, already done it.
While the trade press chases Sacnilk's daily ₹6 Cr gap to Baahubali 2's ₹1,788 Cr lifetime worldwide gross, Pinkvilla published an article on Apr 30 making a sharper claim: Dhurandhar 2 has already surpassed Baahubali 2's original run.
"When taking just the original run, Dhurandhar 2: The Revenge has emerged as the biggest Indian film of all time, surpassing Baahubali 2: The Conclusion. The record was held by Baahubali 2 for more than nine years, with only Pushpa: The Rule coming close." — Pinkvilla, Apr 30, 2026
The argument is methodological: Baahubali 2's ₹1,788 Cr lifetime includes its later China run plus releases in non-regular international markets (Japan, Korea, Western Europe re-releases). Strip those out and you're left with the original-window gross — which Dhurandhar 2 has now exceeded. By Pinkvilla's calculation, D2 ranks as the second-highest-grossing Bollywood film of all time worldwide behind Dangal, and the third-highest Indian film overall trailing only Dangal and BB2's full-lifetime number.
The Sacnilk-led trade narrative — which we've been tracking — focuses on the apples-to-apples lifetime comparison. By that measure, D2 is approximately ₹6 Cr away per Sacnilk's all-language tracking and roughly ₹28 Cr away per Boxoffy's BCM-canonical reconciliation (which uses Box Office India's more conservative Hindi nett + verified dubbed contributions). Either way, the gap closes either this weekend or early next week.
For the full breakdown of how D2 stacks against BB2 — India nett, market splits, footfalls, sequel jump table, and the GCC asterisk — read our complete head-to-head.
Part Four · What to Watch Sat–Sun
Three signals that will decide the weekend.
1. Raja Shivaji Marathi spot bookings on Saturday. Marathi advance is locked at strong levels. The question is whether walk-ins on the Maharashtra Day holiday push it to a double-digit Marathi opening — which would make it the biggest Marathi opener ever by a wide margin. Pinkvilla projects ₹10 Cr Marathi alone; lower-end trade has it at ₹6–7 Cr.
2. Patriot's Kerala-vs-Gulf split. Pre-sales suggest a ₹15 Cr India nett D1 (mostly Kerala-led) plus ₹10 Cr overseas (Gulf-heavy). If Kerala walk-ins push India to ₹18+ Cr and Gulf holds, Patriot is in clean Lokah Chapter 1 territory by Sunday.
3. Bhooth Bangla's W3 hold under Raja Shivaji pressure. Sacnilk explicitly flagged BB faces "screen sharing" with Raja Shivaji starting tomorrow. If BB holds above ₹3.5 Cr Friday despite the screen loss, the ₹150 Cr lifetime call locks. If it drops below ₹3 Cr, the verdict gets revised down.
And one more thing: Dhurandhar 2's worldwide cume. If D43 (today's Thursday close) lands above ₹3 Cr globally, the BB2 lifetime record falls by Saturday morning. If it underperforms, expect the milestone to slide to early next week. Either way — it happens this weekend.
🥇 Raja Shivaji — Marathi cinema's new ceiling
We forecast ₹13 Cr nett D1 with high confidence. The film opened at ₹11.35 Cr — under the call by ₹1.65 Cr — but then did something we didn't model: it grew on Sunday. D3 collected ₹12 Cr (+14% over Saturday). The 3-day total of ₹33.90 Cr nett is now the biggest Marathi opening weekend ever by a wide margin (Sairat lifetime: ₹100 Cr; Raja Shivaji is on pace for ₹100 Cr nett by W2). Riteish delivered. The Salman cameo helped. Marathi cinema has a new ceiling.
📉 Patriot — The collapse we underestimated
We forecast ₹15 Cr India nett D1 + ₹25 Cr WW with high confidence. India D1 came in at ₹10 Cr — 33% below forecast. Then Saturday tanked -38% to ₹6.15 Cr, and Sunday dropped a further -10.6% to ₹5.50 Cr. The 3-day India nett of ₹21.65 Cr is a Mollywood disappointment on a ₹125 Cr budget. However, the overseas number saved face: Gulf-led WW gross of ₹63.61 Cr in 3 days actually beat the ₹25 Cr D1 / ₹50 Cr wknd projections. The split exposes a Mammootty-Mohanlal reunion that worked for the diaspora and underperformed in Kerala. Trade is calling it "front-loaded" — we'd call it a structural mid-tier issue Mollywood needs to address.
📉 Ek Din — Aamir Khan Productions' first true flop in 5 years
Forecast: ₹1.4 Cr D1 with high confidence on the underperformer call. Actual: ₹0.85 Cr. Even worse than predicted. The 3-day weekend total of ₹2.70 Cr nett (₹3.65 Cr WW) makes Ek Din the smallest opener for a Junaid Khan film and breaks Aamir Khan Productions' clean post-COVID record. Sai Pallavi's Hindi debut deserved better marketing — the film is being universally praised by those who've seen it. The launchpad strategy didn't land. AKP needs to recalibrate how it positions niche, character-driven films in a market currently rewarding scale.
🔥 Bhooth Bangla — The W3 hold that beat every new film
This is the one we got wrong in the most flattering direction. We projected BB to drop to ₹3.5 Cr Friday under Raja Shivaji screen pressure with a stable W3 around ₹25-30 Cr. Actual: ₹4.50 Cr Friday, ₹4.35 Cr Saturday, ₹5.20 Cr Sunday — a Sun growth of +20%. This is now the best W1→W3 hold of Akshay Kumar's post-COVID career. The film crossed ₹235 Cr WW on Day 16, becoming Akshay's 12th film ever to cross ₹200 Cr WW, and is on track for ₹260-270 Cr lifetime. The ₹150 Cr nett India call we made is now conservative — revised target ₹160-170 Cr nett India. Akshay × Priyadarshan reunion delivered exactly the kind of clean word-of-mouth that's been missing from Hindi mid-tier.
✅ Dhurandhar 2 — The record fell exactly when we said
We called it: "Either way — it happens this weekend." On Saturday May 2, Dhurandhar 2 officially crossed Baahubali 2's ₹1,788 Cr lifetime worldwide record per The Week and Sacnilk, becoming the #2 highest-grossing Indian film of all time. Current WW stands at ₹1,801 Cr. Dangal (₹2,070 Cr WW with China) is now the only Indian film ahead. D2's W7 collection of ₹6.70 Cr nett is genuinely remarkable for a film 45+ days into release. The Pinkvilla "original-run" claim from Apr 30 is now moot — the lifetime number itself has been broken on a like-for-like basis.
🎯 The bigger picture
Hit rate this weekend among new releases: 1 of 3 (33%). That's higher than April's brutal 2.2% Hindi hit rate but masks a concerning structural pattern — only the lowest-budget film (Raja Shivaji at ₹100 Cr) is profitable; Patriot needs ₹125 Cr nett India to break even and is staring at ₹50-60 Cr lifetime; Ek Din will close at ₹4-5 Cr WW against an undisclosed but visibly mid-budget production. The polarization narrative continues: 5 films are carrying the entire Indian box office and 90+ are in the red. Bhooth Bangla and Raja Shivaji become the 6th and 7th profitable Indian films of 2026. Everything else this month was a loss.